The Dodge Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 7 percent in December to 296.8.
This is an increase from the upwardly revised November reading of 277.4. Over the month, commercial planning improved 3.5 percent and institutional planning increased by 14.9 percent. In 2025, the momentum index was up 37 percent from its 2024 average. The commercial portion was up 35 percent over the year and the institutional portion was up 43 percent.
Year over year, the momentum index was up 50 percent compared to December 2024. The commercial segment was up 45 percent (up 30 percent when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 60 percent in that period.
The momentum index is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months, according to Dodge Construction Network.
“Nonresidential construction starts (excluding manufacturing and transportation) are projected to accelerate in 2027 alongside sustained planning momentum in data center, healthcare and recreational building construction throughout 2025,” says Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Inflationary pressures will further support nominal activity levels, even as economic risks remain elevated. Notably, projects moved through the planning process marginally quicker in the fourth quarter of 2025 (16 months compared to 18 months in the third quarter of 2025), offering a modest boost to our near-term outlook.”
On the commercial side, planning momentum accelerated most strongly for warehouses, office buildings and data centers. Within institutional planning, education and recreational building activity showed the strongest growth, while planning for public buildings pulled back after elevated activity in mid-2025.
Projects in planning
A total of 34 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout December.
The largest commercial projects included four phases of the Google data center campus in Summit, Oklahoma – each valued at $500 million. Additionally, phases 2 and 3 of the Central Park data information processing center in Loxahatchee, Florida, entered planning – valued at $473 million and $431 million, respectively.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $450 million Atrium Health hospital in Fort Mill, South Carolina, the $295 million St. Joseph hospital tower (phase 2 Expansion) in Stockton, California, and the $182 million SunRay casino and park in Clovis, New Mexico.
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