The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) decreased 4.2 percent in September to 208.6 from the revised August reading of 217.7.
The momentum index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
Over the month, commercial planning contracted 7.8 percent and institutional planning improved 5.2 percent.
“Despite this month’s decline, the Dodge Momentum Index remains at very robust levels,” says Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “A surge in data center activity drove much of the recent rapid growth in the DMI – so as planning for that sector moderated over the month, overall commercial planning fell back. By mid-2025, the Fed’s rate cuts should spur planning projects to reach groundbreaking more quickly – leading to stronger nonresidential activity as 2025 progresses.”
Commercial planning generally receded over the month, according to Dodge. After gaining some steam in recent months, warehouse, office and stores planning activity all slowed down. Hotels, on the other hand, have been gaining speed over the past five months, expanding steadily in September.
Data centers continued to dominate large project activity, but the rate at which planning projects entered the queue continued to moderate from the above-average levels of growth in recent months, Dodge says.
On the institutional side, education, healthcare and recreational projects were the primary drivers of this past month’s expansion, with only religious planning posting a decline.
The momentum index was 21 percent higher than in September of 2023. The commercial segment was up 31 percent from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up 4 percent over the same period.
Specific projects
A total of 28 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout September.
The largest commercial projects included the $390 million Project Nova Data Center in Eagan, Minnesota, and phases 1 and 2 of the SNA Data Center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa – valued at $375 million per phase.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $300 million Kairos Power R&D lab facility and the $215 million phase 2 of the Kentucky Exposition Center redevelopment in Louisville, Kentucky.